Rick,

I guess we both can gaze in crystal balls. ;-)

>>Everybody but apple is recognizing that the moment is behind the Web and developers are fed up having to manage x number of platforms to ship a product.

You say this, but as I observed earlier: behemoths who made their fortunes on the web have moved from browser to app on devices. eBay, Amazon, Priceline, the list goes on. Expedia even has better prices in its app than online. Clearly "everybody" is not behind the Web in the mobile age. Once enough apps are there with glue to allow seamless transitions, I keep asking why you need a browser at all.

>> Todays it's 2 main platforms and maybe 3 more wanna be's. If you want to be everywhere that's a sucky proposition that could be solved nicely if HTML was universally accepted.

That might be true if developers were in the driver's seat, but Google and Apple aren't so keen on that idea. They like $B in revenue from app stores and the punters keep rolling up and paying $ so there's no credible customer revolt to be anticipated. Why exactly is it good for Google and Apple to allow their devices to be reduced to disposable carriers for the mighty browser app with control now wielded by 3rd party developers?

>>Google wants to sell advertising and they don't care whether it comes from the Web or from native apps... I'm not sure whether that's a sign of them wanting to go this direction or for them to just hedge their bets in case the industry goes that way in general.

Google's best interests are served if many/most Android customers use apps glued together by Google OS. IMHO Google Now is a nuke dropped on the Web app model: currently disconnected apps soon will be a collection of customer interests mined by Google to present context sensitive options to delight customers. Google Now offers distinct advantages to users of Android and Android apps compared to current other options, including Apple. IMHO even those concerned re intrusive vendor interest may be won over by the coolness. And Google promotes its own brand and stays in control.

>>I think the decision for this won't come from the vendors but from developers. The number of Web developers far outweighs the number of native developers especially if you split it up by platform. If you want your platform to win

Sorry but this doesn't matter at all. Google and Apple will decide, period. And for every determined web vendor you should expect an equally determined competing native vendor who says may the best app in the App Store win. If you see what I mean.

>>But it'll take time. What we're talking about hasn't been possible with the Web for very long - maybe 3 years or so since HTML 5 got enough of a toe-hold and browsers were fast enough to manage rich interaction. Things will continue to improve in this space and catch up to native development in terms of performance and richness of tools available. There much more innovation in the JavaScript space than in the proprietary native vendor space and that IMHO will drive the future.

There's no level playing field here. If web apps are to have a chance, it's because Google and Apple say so. As always, the good question is "why would they do it." Sure 3rd party web developers want it, and also-ran OS vendors want it because it improves their lot- but they have no control unless Google and Apple agree to cede it. Why would they?