>>http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/science/earth/2015-hottest-year-global-warming.html
>>
>>>>the bulk of the record-setting heat, they say, is a consequence of the long-term planetary warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.
>>
>>The Koch brothers and Rush Limbaugh have denied this, so it must be false.
>
>Question - what's the margin for error in the study?
>
>Reason for asking - in the last year, the NOAA admitted margin for error/level of uncertainty has exceeded the amount by which they say the record was set (and in some cases by several times the amount).

WaPo article has some measures of certainty:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/01/20/its-official-2015-smashed-2014s-global-temperature-record-it-wasnt-even-close/

"The latest record means that 2014 — the previous record year — only officially held that title for one year. 2014 came by its record by a relatively narrow margin — for instance, NASA gave 2014 a 38 percent chance of having been the warmest year on record, still reserving a nontrivial chance that the real warmest year had been 2010 or 2005. (NOAA gave a 48 percent chance that 2014 had, at the time, been the warmest year.)

"This year, in contrast, there is little need for citing percentages or a statistical photo finish. Buoyed by a powerful El Niño event, 2015 shattered the 2014 record. NASA’s Schmidt suggests there is only a 5 percent possibility that any other year on record was actually warmer."

Tamar