>Maybe it's some other product trying to update itself e.g. Symantec sometimes installs LiveUpdate with some of its products, which periodically "phone home" and try to update. You could check installed programs in Control Panel...Programs and Features to see if any automatic update programs or services are installed. Then look in Services to see if any are automatic updaters, and disable those not required.
That server has some limited software installed. There's basically Windows Updates, as part of the OS, set to "Never check for updates" and the Anti-Virus, which is set to download new signatures, and that would be required. I highly doubt that one would require MsiInstaller. There is, however, WinZip. On that one, HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Nico Mak Computing\WinZip\UpdateCheck AutoMode was already set to 0. I, did change, however, NoUpdateChecking key to 1. AutoMode suppresses the updater and NoUpdateChecking actually disables the updater completely, removing the interface from WinZip (Options/Configuration… /Miscellaneous/Check for Updates). But, I doubt that one was involved. It has been installed recently and was not scheduled to check for that for several more months.
>If that doesn't help you could go into Task Scheduler and see if any scheduled tasks ran near the time the error was logged. That might tell you what's going on. Unfortunately I don't know of any way to search Scheduled Tasks by time a task was run, the few times I've had to do this I've done it manually which is a PITA.
Task Scheduler is clear.