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Is the coronavirus hype and panic justified?
Message
From
12/03/2020 15:32:28
 
 
To
12/03/2020 14:03:55
John Ryan
Captain-Cooker Appreciation Society
Taumata Whakatangi ..., New Zealand
General information
Forum:
Politics
Category:
Health
Miscellaneous
Thread ID:
01673433
Message ID:
01673581
Views:
34
>>> 14.1% over 90 years.
>>> 42.2% occurred in the age group between 80 and 89 years
>>> 32.4% were between 70 and 79
>>>8.4% between 60 and 69,
>>>2.8% between 50 and 59
> ...
>>>It looks like if you are under 50 you don't have much to worry about.
>
>Thanks for the figures - and there's another denominator to consider: size of age cohort. In 2018 in Italy, around 21% of the population was aged over 65y. If from your figures you extrapolate that around 95% of cases affect this 21% of the population, only 5% of deaths involve the 80% of the population aged less than 65y and all indications are that these few have comorbidities.


That is comparable to the Florida numbers. About 44% of Florida's population is older than 45 but they account for 96% of the currenty known cases and 100% of the deaths (both in their 70's and both travel abroad)..
If you go to older than 65 the numbers are 17% of the population account for 58% of the cases and 100% of the deaths.

The figures aren't exact but the do show a definite trend, But, the sample size is very small.
>
>Meanwhile daily new COVID-19 cases in China fell from counts into the 4 figures down to around 15 per day this week, with officials in their equivalent of CDC predicting this will fall to 0 before end of March.
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