>Tamar,
>May I insist you take the time to read Nobel Michael Levitt take on the virus. He is telling us that this virus will disappear relatively soon. He challenges the current public view and consensus on the pandemic in a VERY significant way.
>As a Nobel recipient M.L. certainly may express his opinions. Since they are optimistic they have received little press cover. All media are trying to out-panic their competitor. But IMHO what he says about the incredible reduction of the pandemic in China is as worth considering. I found no decent explanation to last week announcement by China that they had literally stopped the pandemic... Except his worth-a-read hypothesis. M.L. is an old man. But this is not enough to discount his views. Some people avidlty read DT or listen BJ. Why not listen to Nobel prize scientists... :-)

First, I note that his Nobel is in Chemistry, not Medicine. Most importantly, epidemiology is not his expertise.

Second, I look at the difference between Italy and South Korea, and I see that in South Korea, where they started testing massively and implemented social distancing rapidly, they've kept the number of cases to a level where their medical system is not overwhelmed. In Italy, they're having triage patients in ways that any civilized society would normally consider out of the question.

I just took a quick peak and what seems to missing from his argument is anything about restrictions that were put in place and when they happened. He's arguing the virus stopped finding hosts because of natural immunity. But I'm pretty sure the actual sequence of events is that it stopped finding new hosts because the Chinese government put restrictions in place to stop the spread.

In fact, AFAIK, we don't yet know whether getting this confers lifetime immunity. We certainly that's the case.

Anyway, I'll stay home and do my best not to be part of spreading this disease.

Tamar