>>Hope you're staying well.
>>I'm getting crossed signals about how things are in NZ, but you've probably read about NY and NJ, so I'm seriously hunkered-down.

As are we all down here.

NZ appears to have low infection rates, low community spread, doesn't follow the minority dominance (vast majority of cases and deaths = white, not minority/underprivileged) and it looks as if NZ is over the first hump.

>>Science signals are confusing to me but I keep thinking about Pascal's wager - le pari - and it's application here.
>>If I follow the hunker down advice and it's right, I've saved my life.
>>If I follow it and it's wrong, I had some needless discomfort.
>>If I don't follow it and it's right, I'm dead.

Agreed - but testing offers you a rational end point unless you expect to stay hunkered down forever?

How about your relatives get the antibody test and half of them are immune. So they can safely visit you or vice versa. How about if you take a test and who'd have thunk it - you're one of the asymptomatic 87% who had the disease without even knowing. How is the lock down helping you now?

Equally- if neither you nor your relatives are immune, you don't need Pascal's wager to know why to stay where you are.

The antibody test is a game changer IMHO...