>Hi Bill,
>
>>I'm getting crossed signals about how things are in NZ, but you've probably read about NY and NJ, so I'm seriously hunkered-down.
>>Science signals are confusing to me but I keep thinking about Pascal's wager - le pari - and it's application here.
>>If I follow the hunker down advice and it's right, I've saved my life.
>>If I follow it and it's wrong, I had some needless discomfort.
>>If I don't follow it and it's right, I'm dead.
>
>My thoughts/plans follow your criteria in a broad way. Pascal's wager has for me the weakness of creating dichotomies where there are probably no reasons to assume such. If Church proclaimed heaven is the only "choice" available, Pascal has a strong argument. If Hades, Ragnarok, karmatic Wheel of Life and similar places are given similar weight on existing scientific proof for it, it becomes more difficult.
>
>In Corona terms: current thinking uncertain if herd immunity will be gained via vaccine or large % going through infection (Corona virus types give more problems creating vaccines, but seem to be more stable - so less need for changing vaccines if any can be found, no data on strength and duration of assumed immunity yet, but if effective for at least 3 months a bet to take), so the question might be: "As un-vaccined exposure/infection becomes probable in next 18 month, is it better to expose yourself/population to that risc in summer, going on hypothesis drawn from incomplete data from Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, in part in-between-countries like Iran or Indonesia?"
>
>Not to start stage diving as day-to-day practice to follow after "immunity" is gained, but to give my body a better fighting chance on next (certain) encounter if contacting nicer things in life (like girl friends) again while keeping most others at distances taught today. If climatic differences result in marked difference of clinical symptoms and severity, it might create more Corona deaths in next 18 months considering large numbers if restrictions are still in place during summer. But I want scientists to give me data, not politicians to set policies due to their priorities and (sometimes) mental shortcomings.
>
>regards
>thomas


>>But I want scientists to give me data, not politicians to set policies due to their priorities and (sometimes) mental shortcomings.

Practically speaking, we have little choice but to follow the policies set by state and local politicians.
They will make decisions about schools, theaters, etc.
Even if I want to, I can't go to a bar or restaurant if all are shuttered.

By age and medical history I'm a perfect target for that virus, so I'm undoubtedly more cautious than less attractive targets might be.
I tune out the "who said what when about what to whom" noise that floods the bandwidth, virus or not.
So far, what my state and local people have done makes sense, so I'm paying close attention.

The feds - especially the Federal Reserve - will be huge players in the economic recovery.
States get most of their incomes from sales taxes which have tanked.
NJ, NY and Pa have been hit especially hard economically and are basically broke. If they get no help, there will be years, perhaps decades, of grief for their residents and the rest of the country that relies on trade with them.
The quality of the federal response will be measured by how it helps those and other states recover economically.