>>>>Inflation is tricky and dangerous... I'd like to think larger countries/currencies could avoid runs on their currencies and avoid a Weimar Republic/Venezuela situation - extreme or hyper-inflation
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>Perhaps it depends whether current virus causes mass under-employment as predicted. People who are already experiencing financial upheaval may shrug off most consequences as just more of the same, with magical debt reduction rising from the rubble as a worthwhile goal. I suppose time will tell, but I see that many Western nations borrowed heavily to insulate the citizenry from COVID lockdown so soon there will be an opportunity to declare "better big pain for small time than small pain for big time" meaning a brief inflation surge, knowing that as long as the means of production and pricing aren't collapsed by theoreticians/incompetents of whatever persuasion, national economies can emerge from turmoil relatively quickly. The actual cost to the citizenry may be far less than the cost of rescuing bankers from their sub-prime debacle, so there is a precedent.
The more I look at this, the more I'm thinking confidence is a key, if not the most important factor overall. Confidence drives employment. Pretty much all the modern financial world is literally a confidence game (usually in a good way).
Loosening inflation target reins will erode or destroy confidence. In the ensuing turmoil, obvious winners will be currency speculators, hedge funds, high-frequency traders etc. IIRC your opinion of those types is not stellar. Their gains come at the price of everyone else getting shaved or haircut.
In order to stop rampant inflation, central bankers will have to experiment with raising interest rates. All the worldwide investment funds currently sloshing around in real estate will flee to any place that can offer any sort of yield. Wage increases will likely substantially trail interest rate hikes, putting huge pressure on mortgage holders. There will be no solace in the bond market, which after 15 - 20 years of relatively steady prime rates will be destroyed by sudden rises. Where else can investment monies go? The stock market will bubble. Gold and other safe haven commodities will hit new highs.
If central bankers are still able to set and meet inflation targets, I'm thinking "big [how big?] pain for small [how small?] time" will cause excessive turmoil and agony. I'd be inclined to find some creative way to finance required "corrections" over an extended time period - try not to shock the system too much, try to retain confidence.
Regards. Al
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