>>In practice I would probably try other means first to heighten vacc level: ask for tests more often but refuse to offer them for free to unvaccinated, cover only 10-20% of any COVID treatment cost for unvaccinated grownups, as it was their choice to heighten their personal risk by not vaccinating(with some exceptions for those unable to vaccinate for medical reasons - those have to checked in advance). Alternative ways to monetize possible, like a monthly discount for vaccinated people in health insurance cost. More testing/research on Corona infection in kids compared with risks of vaccination would be nice as seen from this keyboard.
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>>BUT: If the strategy is to give Corona antibodies to total population (which WILL happen everywhere, just a matter of time as it becomes endemic...) to avoid lockdowns in cold season 2021/2022 at all means, starting in summer is smarter - as long as enough hospital beds are free, this alternative/more traditional way to get antibodies will add a few million before October, which traditionally hikens aerosol-spread infections.
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>From a public health POV the unvaccinated should be tested more often, and encouraged to get tested. Charging for tests is exactly the wrong thing to do. Reducing testing amongst the unvaccinated will increase COVID amongst them and their contacts, lead to more cases of serious disease and provide more opportunity for viral mutation.
I already wrote that based on risk of children and young adults I think the opening is premature and that I'd try to enhance vaccinated percentages. That said, let me play devils advocate for the "let it run" attempt:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsightshttps://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-vaccination-tracker-find-out-how-many-have-had-the-jab-12179220One of my basic premises (even without playing devils advocate) is that eliminating Corona2 was dubious 18 months ago at best, imposissible since more than 15 months ago. Humans have entered/added a new symbiontic relationship with that virus strain.
From human POV biggest danger is/was high probability of serious or fatal illness after infection, highly corrrelated with age and certain conditions also intercorrelated with age. Specific targeting of Corona2 by immune system was the exception, only a few had immune systems already primed by other Coronae stems or strains.
Vaccination is a training for the immune system - on relatively the small testing samples 100% able to avoid fatality and almost certain to avoid hospitalization, but when larger number of vaccinated people are analyzed, some hospitalizations and some deaths occur.
Corona will adapt as well: in the long run it is "better" for the virus to kill a smaller percentage of infected, as this keeps herd of possible targets large. It currently begins to face to encounter trained immune systems, which equates to selection pressure, so every new mutation with better chances to spread will become prevalent. I have no scientific evidence, only spurious data, that alpha and delta were both more taxing compared to their predecessors when encountering similar target populations: unvaxxed people not infected before. This is in line with rules of thinking, as easier cell entry leads to higher virus loads early on and at least the early load on infection time has been shown to be relevant to severity of illness.
The current slump in time-lagged percentage of hospitalizations and deaths is IMO NOT caused by mutants already being less dangerous after infection, but by the # of trained immune systems encountered and in part better ideas on how to treat Covid.
If there is only 10% of adult population still without antibodies (see link) and infections in children are relatively risk-free, there is the option of only looking at hospitalization rate and death #, with the danger of missing the early warnings of hightened positve results and rising insidence, esp. as endangered old ones are nearly full protected (at least 3 times the number of deaths in that age group had Covid, might explain most of # of unvaccinated).
If weekly infections above 1 million (50000 per day times 7 days times 3-6 symptomless) happen without taxing the health system (see % of high risk vaccinated in other chart), in coming winter almost everybody has a trained immune system in the UK. Unproven hopes might include better chances of fighting infection during summer (less inital virus load thx to UV, also better health/Vitamin D to being outoors in sun).
Yes, it is a gamble - but this one not as ridiculous as disdaining masks and other measures in the absence of vaccination last year. UK at least has tried to get also data on antibodies caused by symptomless infection - something done here ONCE and from then on the topic was totally unwanted. I don't suspect lizard conspiracy, but "wellmeaning big brother attidude" on how to shape public opinion. Our politicians might not lie as blatantly as 45, but by now they cannot be as stupid as source of some of their utterances needs to be without "ulterior" motive.
Yes, testing - and even more sequencing infections to identify new strains, which UK did early on to detect/measure alpha earlier than everybody else - helps public health. When mutations start to have even better chances to infect freshly vaccinated or boosted people, testing need will rise again.
But in the current state of (stooopid) public argument: "vaccinated or tested" it might be used to motivate.
Arguments more beside the truth/best interest have been uttered in the last 18 months...
regards
thomas
