>>Why it rained, why the market went up or why someone pulled the trigger is speculation.
>>I can do my own.
>
>Not all analysis is speculation. Without it, the tendency is to repeat the mistakes of the past.
>
>You may form your own opinions of and act upon matters that affect only you, but actions undertaken by groups of people require some sort of consensus, which ideally should be grounded in rational analysis.

Correct;
I can usually figure out what is rational analysis and what isn't for myself. When I want someone's opinion, I have a few sources that often make sense, but
also often don't.
The good news is that while we as a race often do crazy things like invading other countries, over the long run we seem to stumble into the right thing.

John Keats wrote this about 200 years ago and it's still a good guide:

"Beauty is truth–truth beauty–that is all ye know on earth and all ye need to know.”