>>>IMO, there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY to make money in any market by trending. I have studied many theories and formulas, and tried them, and when it comes down to it, they are all just different ways of guessing that work out to throwing sticks in the air. The only way to make money, IMHO, is market, industry and company research.
>>
>>Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis.
>>
>>There are people who make money using charts/trends.
>
>But there are far more who lose money trying it. There are also people that make money in Vegas playing slots. Despite what they think, they have not found a "lucky" machine. If they play long enough, they will lose everything they have made and more.


I guess I should say there are people that make money consistently over the long term using charts. But they are not blind to other aspects of analysis.


>
>You can see the reality of this by hanging out in options trading boards and listening to people over a period of time. Many get excited because they just 6x'ed their money on a sweet call deal. Two weeks later, they've lost everyhing they ever won and more- following the same formula that won them money the first time. Been there. Lost it.
>
>>I think there are specific industries with which this can be done and there are others that are far less likely to follow trends.
>
>Again, this comes down to studying an industry. I know from studying that Dell stock always takes a 5-10% hit after they announce earnings, good or bad. But this is from studying the company- not watching real-time peaks and dips. If you have found an industry that you can make money from trending, it is more than likely from long term trending then from eyeballing the stock from minite to minute.


I am speaking of long term trending. I think that day trading is generally a losing gamble.


>My point is, there are so many people watching the market and moving on every jump or dip, that not even a computer can make sense of it, because the market waters truly reflect chaos. If it were possible to program a computer to consistently make money watching the stock market, don't you think some of the multi-billion dollar firms would have paid the greatest analytical minds to to do it? The fact is, that even if a program like this were written and it worked, it's very existence would negate its own effectiveness, because its widespread use would dillute the profit potential.


Right. I agree with all of this. The thing that I know is that unless companies make a lot of money and pass some out to shareholders, trading stocks will be a net loss to buyers and sellers. This is because there are extra costs involved. Commissions being one of them. Markets might become overvalued and some people will get out in time before a correction and these people might be net gainers; but some people won't get out in time and they will lose. There are winners and losers, but more is lost than won as far as I know. Of course, if our economy is great and companies all make a lot of money and consistently grow, well, things could be different.

Anyways, I think maybe you were referring mainly to short term trending. I agree that this is hard to predict and create profit.

Take care,
Joe