>Looks like I was wrong. I hate it when that happens. I tweaked Christof's code so I could run it both ways, and in fact the empirical results do show about one win in three if you don't change versus two wins in three if you do change. So, now I'm a believer too... but it's still counter-intuitive.
>
Rick,

Yeah is certainly is counter-intuitive for sure.

I remember the first time I saw this puzzle, the person who showed it to me tried to say that the 1:2 odds of the second choice were the reason that it made sense to change. That just did not sit with me mathematically, if there was a 1:2 chance the other door was correct then there should also be a 1:2 chance that it isn't.