Great analysis Jeff...

Don't get me wrong... TODAY...the MS tools are suiting me well. I have checked out Cold Fusion - a non-MS product. In terms of Dev tools, there is Delphi, but I have need to make that migration as VFP and VB suit me well. As a DB - SQL is suiting me well - today.

Some three years ago, I was asked how I felt about FoxPro, my loyalty and such. My response was something like:

As long as a tool provides me with ability to earn substantial amounts of money, I will use it. When the day comes that I can no longer be competitive with that tool, lose business, etc.. I will dump that tool, and that includes FoxPro

Common sense really...

The most significant threat to MS is Linux IMHO... For those of use that pay attention to the capital markets, and I guess you are one as well... how about VA Linux. Offering price of $30 - went to $245 the day of the IPO. You say 10's of billions will flow into the internet sector. I say 100's of billions...

Ancient chinese curse -

May you live in interesting times.....

FWIW, I don't think that great next tool even exists yet....

Good discussion...


>Let's build a good foundation for this discussion based on the following facts, recent developments and asumptions:
>
>[1] Microsoft has been successful and has achieved dominance (of varying degrees) with respect to desktop computing, OSs, Internet technologies, programming languages, etc.
>
>[2] Microsoft's success (indicated above) can be attributed to the $billions (not $millions) spent on R&D, marketing, etc. - $billions obtained through OS revenues for the most part.
>
>[3] Recently, there have been huge capital investments in non-Microsoft products and technologies - Linux is the big one, but not the only one. This is due not only to anti-Microsoft sentiment and the DOJ thing, but to the fact that there is an historical amount of investment capital available.
>
>[4] The Internet (and related technologies) could be considered an industry in it's own right, still in infancy, and growing at a rate that is unprecedented. Investment capital is pouring into it and there is no end in sight. It is safe to say that, over the next three years, these investments will be in the tens of $billions (with a B) and will far exceed those investments made by Microsoft.
>
>[5] Market leadership and certain economies to scale now enjoyed by Microsoft will be dramatically reduced over the next 3-5 years because of [3] and [4] above. The barriers to entry are already coming down.
>
>[6] As a result of [3], [4], and [5], there will be a proliferation of non-Microsoft technologies that will become viable alternatives for a wide array of players (IT Folks, Developers, Users, etc.). This will result in even more opportunities for technological innovation which will have a multiplier effect everywhere.
>
>Beginning to come out of the Microsoft box yet? Everything then becomes alot more exciting.
>
>Before we get more specific, let's focus on defining further the foundation outlined above.
>
>
>>Fine then, lets start the discussion...
>>
>>Where outside the box would you like to start???
>>
>>>I'm assuming you are referring to Microsoft's corner of the world - a fairly big corner - for now at least.
>>>
>>>I want to start thinking out of the Microsoft Box. Howbout you, John - or are you one of those who thinks that the Microsoft way is the only way both now and in the future? I think it's a mistake to think this way.
>>>
>>>
>>>>How about VBA, VBScript.......
>>>>For CE, there are VB and VC toolkits....
>>>>Maybe in your corner of the World it's different. In the other 99%, VB is the tool of choice for projects 80% of the time.