John,

A few of points.

First, I caution you against jumping to market-size conclusions based on subscription numbers. The correlation is not direct and linear. What you are seeing is more the case that FPA sucks. It doesn't deliver value, as witness its magazine and its website. If it sucks it doesn't sell. Simple as that, really.

(When I say sucks, I mean it delivers far less value than it could and should. That's my definition.)

Second, VBPJ clearly delivers awesome value. This is a major reason why its subscription numbers may be up. Are they really way up, by the way? Just curious if you have any numbers.

Third, I look at my stacks of VB Developer Journal and Smart Access (both from Pinnacle) and they suck too, and their numbers are way down also. But glorious markets those are, so that goes to show you can't draw straight conclusions.

On the Advisor side, they've drastically changed their procuct lines over the years and, as we all agree, they suck, and no surprise they are down across the board. There are no "star" Advisor publications. I suspect Databased Advisor was doing poorly and, in typical Hawkins fashion, they tinkered with the packaging instead of getting a clue. Witness the publisher of E-Business magazine has a websute that truly, truly sucks. What more can we say? I mean, really.

Fourth, remember the economics of niche markets are unlike the economics of regular markets. Why, by your reckoning, everyone should flee niche markets because they stagnate, no (or negative) growth, they're unsexy speciality products, etc. Look again. Notice how really good VFP developers are raking in the dough? Looking at the VBPJ salary surveys, it's a different and decidedly downscale world out there.

Fifth: Explain why there isn't a totally rocking Java magazine market right now? Reason: the publications suck. They really do. I know because I subscribe to several of them. Lots of developers, but stagnation at the magazine racks.

I just don't think you can draw any solid conclusions from the circulation numbers of companies that clearly don't have any edge, or any fire in their bellied for what they do. Magazines are yesterday's harbinger. Publishing isn't dead yet, but it clearly ain't a good reflection of reality either.

Another minor point: A lot of FPA advertising is by Advisor itself so that skews any ad-ratio conclusions we can draw. It waters down ads by paying advertisers, that's for sure...

Andre