>Employers want certification for protection or some sort of warm fuzzy.

Yup. the same reason that employers want college degrees. These are real concerns.

> MCSE will probably become less and less important.

Not if the test stays with the times. Currently, MCSE is pretty worthless, IMHO because it is fairly well known that you can 'cram' for the tests, and usually pass with no real world experience. There is a whole industry built on MCSE training that promises "MCSE in a week". microsoft is aware of this problem and has issued a statement that the tests will soon be revamped to be made MUCH more difficult.

MCSD, on the other hand, is still a pretty valuable measure of overall knowledge of MS development products and general design. I don't know of anyone claiming they can train your for an MCSD in a week.

Discounting the worth of certification exams in general is pretty silly. Just my opinion. All other things equal, would you rather take your car to a certified mechanic or an uncertified mechanic? If you were an employer, why would your logic be any different?