>I find it funny when I head to the front page and find a head line saying that Linux won't run on the P4 but don't see a thing about Linux v. MS on the future Iridium processor. First off, that stuff about Linux having a problem with the P4 is bullshit. Yes, the majority of distributions don't have the necessary hash tables to run on the P4, but one that does is Red Hat, and the majority of Linux users out there use Red Hat. <snip>
>j

I noticed that my prefered distro, SuSE, had a P4 fix on their website within a DAY of the incompatibility notice. It may have been hours but I only check on a daily basis.

Linux V. MS is another issue which, in the end, the market will decide. In the 22 years I've been in the PC environment I've seen many very fine products fail to achieve critical market mass, while some very crummy ones do. The buggy, crashy MS OS for example.

Linux has reached critical mass in the server market and is rapidly replacing Novell and MS servers. Microsoft's licensing greed is doing as much to help that as Linux's legendary stability, speed, scalability and affordability.
The DOJ's efforts to reign in Microsoft's illegal monopoly practices may be curtailed under Bush. If that happens PC vendors will be re-embraced and coherced into making every PC that goes out the door include WinXX regardless of the OS the buyer chooses. That is almost the situation now.

He who 'owns' the Internet owns the desktop. Microsoft is fighting back by trying to 'embrace and extend' W3W standards, like kerberos, and leverage their advantage in brower mass to acheive 'ownership' of the Internet. Clueless webdesigners who design browser-dependent sites are allies with MS in this ploy.
It remains to be seen if C# replaces Java and forces Netscape and other browsers into obscurity.

Critical mass in the desktop market will be more difficult to achieve because of the large number of Win32 based applications covering all diciplines, and the unholy aliances between MS and hardware manufacturers (WinModems, WinPrinters, etc.), keeping Linux drivers for that hardware out of the linux community. Cracks are beginning to appear in those markets though.

Having access to the inner workings of both Linux and the tools used to develop Linux based applications (if they choose to use Open Source and GPL tools), the Linux developer is an a superior position to overcome bugs in the Linux OS and toolsets and bring products to market and doesn't have to wait for a software house to release a 'fix' or pay for YAU (Yet Another 'Upgrade'). Once marketed, they don't have to spend their application revenue on software 'licenses' with Microsoft or tool manufacturers, or risk loosing their investment by becoming a victim of one of Microsoft's many ways of stealing apps from 3rd party houses. Also, 'Runtimes' are not necessary.

My prediction is that despite the current desktop advantage MS enjoys, one only has to consider how far Linux on the PC desktop has come in only the last one to two years to realize how the momentum is gathering and how much market share Linux will capture from Microsoft in the next year or two. I think a good current estimate for Linux desktop marketshare is 8 to 10%. By December of 2003 I think it will be around 30% +- 10%. Double to quadrouple.

The one billion dollars being spent by IBM won't hurt.