>>You have a sample of 24 people, randomly selected. What is the probability that two of them share the same birthday?
>>
>>Hilmar.
>
>A little over 0.5 (or 50%).
>
>The calculation goes something like
>
>1 - 364/365 * 363/365 * 362/365 .... * 342/365
>
>You work out the probability that they all have different birthdays, then subtract from 1 to get the probability that not all birthdays are different.
Yes, I just wrote this to Nadya.
The interesting part is that most people, when asked this question, would estimate a much, much lower probability. 5% or 10% seems much more likely than 50%.
Hilmar.
Difference in opinions hath cost many millions of lives: for instance, whether flesh be bread, or bread be flesh; whether whistling be a vice or a virtue; whether it be better to kiss a post, or throw it into the fire... (from Gulliver's Travels)
