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What is in a Birthday.
Message
From
08/11/2001 09:30:44
Hilmar Zonneveld
Independent Consultant
Cochabamba, Bolivia
 
 
To
08/11/2001 09:24:34
General information
Forum:
Politics
Category:
Other
Miscellaneous
Thread ID:
00578804
Message ID:
00579041
Views:
37
>>>>That's right. What the question actually asks is for the probability of any two people in the group sharing their birthdate on any day of the year. That's the reason the probability is higher than most people expect.
>>>
>>>I'm somewhat probability-challanged so what would it be if you said, "What is the probability that out of the 24 people in this room that one of them has my birthday?"
>>
>>The probability that at least one will have the same birthday is around 6.5% (using same basis, calculate probabilty that none have the same birthday & subtract from 1)
>>
>>1 - (364/365) ^ 24
>>
>>if you're one of the 24, sum is 1 - (364/365) ^ 23 & result is about 6.2%
>
>Probability of only 1 person having the same birthday is around 0.016% calculated as (364 ^ 23) / (365 ^ 24)

Where do you get these numbers from?

Adapting the previous formula, you get:

1 - (364/365) ^ 1 = 0,27%.

Which is exactly the same as 1/365.

Hilmar.
Difference in opinions hath cost many millions of lives: for instance, whether flesh be bread, or bread be flesh; whether whistling be a vice or a virtue; whether it be better to kiss a post, or throw it into the fire... (from Gulliver's Travels)
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