>To properly analyze, one would have to take the $5k and discount it by the probability: (5K * .49) = $2,450. Given these statistics in the hypothetical case, the scale tilts toward programming for the contingency. There certainly are other things to consider and further, the less likely the occurence, the lower the dollar amount result..
>
>There are many reasons why one should plan for something that "probably" won't happen since this statement can be construed to mean that something might happen..

Well, since you put it that way .. er .. okay. I have found that the art of generalizing is not static. I am trying to to do better. I go to all the meetings and stuff. But the meetings are too specific - they always encourage the same behavior - generalize, generalize, generalize - or you'll be living in a van down by the river. I am trapped between the demon of specificty, and the angel of generalization. They are the phoney proud, and I am their slave, or is it the other way around? :)

BTW - I pasted your stat specs to my developer's notenook!