>"...As somebody who possesses an MBA, "
>
>Can you convert Black's economic [model] summations to algebra :-)?

Given time, I probably could... but who cares....

Having said that, here is what he said...

<<
the "rising stars" box is typically characterized by low barriers to entry, crowded with competitors, pioneering costs, technology risk and, as a result, below average profitability.
<<

My response:


Low Barriers to Entry:

I don't know if I would characterize getting into the tools market on the scale of .NET as easy. Finding development talent, getting the necessary funding to support what will be healthy burn rate, etc... I think these represent significant barriers to entry.

Pioneering Costs:

This is nothing more than R and D. MS has a 5.5 Billion Dollar R and D budget. Nothing more on the matter needs to be said...

Technology Risk:

The platform is windows - which is owned my MS. I think this mitigates much of the risk. MS, having recognized past mistakes is less likely to make *as many* in the future. OTOH, maybe they will make more. Assuming the risk is great, MS is probably in the best shape to bear the risk.

Below Average Profitability:

If average profitiablity is 30 cents on the dollar, MS might make 25 cents instead. Below average profitability is not red!

Seems to me that .NET is a pretty well situated "rising start".

Steve will need to "refactor" < g > his argument...