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Note: Please do not post the answer immediately if you know the answer. I want the UTers to put their thinking caps on.>
>Given a deck of 100 cards where each card is uniquely identified by a number printed on the card (no range specified). Would you play this game?
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>The game:
>I shuffle the cards and put them face down in front of you. You flip the cards face up one at a time and must say stop when you think the last flipped card has the highest value printed on it. I give you 5 to 1 odds.
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>Is this a fair game? What if I included 1000, or even 1,000,000 cards in the deck? What odds must I give you in order to convince you to play the game? What strategy would you use?
I have the vague impression that, because of too little information available, it is possible to arrange the game in such a way that the probability of any one card being the maximum in the series is 1/100 - despite the fact that I saw several cards previously. Therefore, I would not accept the game with 5 to 1 odds. I do not, however, have a proof that this is actually so.
(In actual practice, I never bet, but I like analyzing probabilities.)
Hilmar.
Difference in opinions hath cost many millions of lives: for instance, whether flesh be bread, or bread be flesh; whether whistling be a vice or a virtue; whether it be better to kiss a post, or throw it into the fire... (from Gulliver's Travels)