Bill,

>Rightly or wrongly, here's my reasoning: Regardless of the hype, .Net requires new machines and new OSes for each developer ** and ** for each user...

You have a point related to development machines for .NET and perhaps for machines to run .NET Winforms apps.

However, ASP.NET certainly can be (and is being) easily implemented today without any additional requirements on user machines. .NET is going somewhere already in that category.

It is still very early in the learning curve for most .NET developers and I'm hearing from a good many vendors of .NET-related products that sales are pretty slow in some categories. Tools that help with development (or pre-built components) are beginning to sell, but tools that relate to deployment, code security (obfuscation), and so forth are selling poorly so far.

I think that information agrees with your point that very little is being deployed so far, with the exception of ASP.NET apps. However, I don't agree that .NET is going nowhere. It's going somewhere, but has lots of inertia to break.