>JVP
>
>>>Those that view the world only in terms of their little corner, are going to wake up one day and ask, "Where did all these indians come from?" (The joke is that Custer said this at the battle for little bighorn!)<<
>>>I see .NET greatly accelerating this trend.<<
>
>More sophistry re your favourite topic. This time you have us being scalped by troops of In dians.
>
>Fact: we are not about to be surrounded and wiped out decisively by anything in the IT world let alone dotNET.
>
>Please read the following:
>
>http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/18777.html
>
>Key points re dotNET:
>
>1) dotNET is overhyped and immature.
>2) Development will be "module by module", not big bang. IOW there is time for experienced developers to leverage their skills.
>3) In 5 years analysts expect most MS-centric development to be entirely in dotNET. 5 years is a pretty big "little corner" in IT terms. It represents the time difference between FP2.0 and VFP. Nobody would contend that VFP swept in and smashed FP2.0 away, there will *always* be an iterative series of choices in a 5 year IT span.
>4) Java still has the advantage with experienced developers and a favoured position.
>
>dotNET represents a 5-10 year strategy for MS. Not even Gates is still talking about "greatly accelerating" anything, experienced parties agree that MS has a lot of work ahead to win the minds and pocketbooks of developers and customers. We aren't about to be swept away by a Tomahawk charge.
>
>IOW the "fake enthusiasm" for an immediate dotNET invasion is an obsolete crock. People DO have time and reason to consider and learn, nothing is "greatly accelerated" about dotNET.
>
>The only thing you are correct about is newbies being turned off VFP and a resulting shortage of new blood. Surely you don't believe that a daily onslaught of FUD is the answer to that.
>
>regards
>
>JR

John;

Bill Gates states it will take 5 years for .NET to “mature”. Having worked with technology for a number of years I take 5-year plans as something that motivated the Soviet Union. Five years in the software industry has meant radical changes. By the time .NET is “mature”, it will surely be obsolete and will be replaced by the latest greatest vision of a new concept not fully understood by anyone.

Whenever a software tool begins to mature a number of things occur.

1. The tool becomes stable or predictable.
Well, almost stable but very predictable.

2. The tools limits have been realized and prevent solutions to current problems.
Problems may in fact be based upon perceptions from marketing and perhaps not from "real problems". Everything should be Browser based is an example.

3. Revenue for the software vendor is down and requires “shock treatment” to become invigorated.
You can never have enough profit if you own a company!

Visions, perceptions and greed. A healthy combination for any billionaire.

Tom