Hi Hilmar,
I like your thinking on streak probability. I decided to look into to it, so did some web browsing. I think the answer to steak winning can be found in the "Theory of Large Numbers".
We know the probability in tossing a coin is 50:50 as there are only two possible outcome, and each has an equal chance of occurring. If a coin was tossed 100 times, I would expect the outcome to be close to 50 heads and 50 tail. The outcome would probably not be exactly 50:50, but would usually be close.
I also know that as the coin is tossed more time the outcome of the occurrence will approach an exact 50:50 occurrence rate. This is essentially the "Theory of Large Numbers".
I also know that as the coin is tossed more, the likelihood of streaks increases, so if the coin were tossed enough times, I would find somewhere in the distribution, a streak where heads was tossed 90 times in a row. If I examined the distribution further, I would also find a streak where tails was tossed 90 times, which would counter balance the streak of head tosses and bring the probability of all occurrence back to the 50:50 ratio.
Over small occurrences the result can be very slanted. For example, if the streak of 90 heads occurred during the tossing of the coin 100 times, it could greatly exaggerate the result from expected, causing great wins or loses.
If the coin were tossed so many times that a line between the earth to the moon was required to hold the results, I could examine the results to determine the probability of streaks by counting the number of time a streak occurred relative to the total number of occurrence, so I'm sure streak probability could be measured mathematically, but I not sure exactly what the formula would look like. I do know that the "Theory of Large Numbers" can be very complex.
If the coin was tossed an infinite number of times, there would be at least one occurrence of every possible streak with an offsetting steak. <bg>
Here is a link, but there are many more links on the web.
http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/52799.htmlRegards,
LelandJ
