>Bob,
>
>>You are correct, each event is independent. On any flip of a coin there is a 50% change that it will be heads...
>>
>>But, there is also the probablity of the repeating events... flip a coint once, you have a 50/50 chance it will be heads. Flip it again, there is a 50/50 change it will be heads. Let's say it was heads 3 times in a row, what is the probability that it will be heads a fourth time?
>
>0.5 the
exact same as it was on the first flip.
>
>>Sure, there is still a 50/50 chance of heads on that fourth flip? However, the chance of 4 heads in a row is alot lower than three heads and a tail.
>
>Not really. The probability of having the sequence: heads, heads, heads, heads is 1/16 (1/2)
4 which is the exact same as the probability of the sequence: heads, heads, heads, tails.
Hi David. You are of course correct. Its the same mistake people make in thinking that drawing a mixed suit straight has a lower probability than drawing any random arrangement of 5 cards from a deck. Both hands have the same probability of being dealt but only one is given the "status" of a winning poker hand.
Best regards.
In the End, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends - Martin Luther King, Jr.
