Mike,

My statement was that the *effect* is predictable and calculable. I said NOTHING about being able to determine exact cards or sequences thereof. What CAN be predicted and calculated is the current advantage of one side over the other, on a percentage basis. In your example below, the house holds a very slightly higher advantage over their basic 0.50% based on the cards you specify.

Without going into too much detail -- a player, keeping track of what cards have been removed from the deck, can (with practice) determine whether it is advantageous to play and bet more or less agressively based on that information. IT IS NOT EASY -- if it was, everyone would be winning; casinos would then adjust the rules to their favor and remove the advantage.

In fact, at its largest, the best blackjack advantage a player can realize at any one given instant regardless of the cards remaining is about 3 percent over the house. The best advantage the house can have is about 8 percent over the player (these numbers vary WIDELY based on specific house rules, the number of players at the table, how deep the cut card is placed, the number of decks in the shoe, the cards removed from the deck, and several other minor factors).


>I'm pretty sure at some point in time I made some remarks here about noise and thread drift... I'm fine with being a hypocrite.
>
>>However, you're incorrect on your second assertion -- the effect on the next hand IS predictable, calculable AND usable by an intelligent player. This has been proven both by mathematicians AND expert players on several occasions.
>
>I still don't see how this is possible. Even in an extreme case.
>
>Alright, say we've seen almost every card in the deck and we know that the following cards are still in whats to be dealt:
>
>2club
>4heart
>8heart
>9club
>Kspade
>Adiamonds
>
>If its you and the dealer in the game, the fact that you know whats left in the deck still has no bearing on how the cards are arranged within the deck and how they will fall when dealt.