Hi,

A friend of mine recomended me to read some about the "Madness of Crowds" and "Contrary Thinking", and as an example he pointed me two books (see below - after a search I could find many others that deal with the same subject).

Does anyone have read any of those books in order to make comments about the subject in question or do have any recomendations?

Thanks,

Fernando

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay:

"Why do otherwise intelligent individuals form seething masses of idiocy when they engage in collective action? Why do financially sensible people jump lemming-like into hare-brained speculative frenzies--only to jump broker-like out of windows when their fantasies dissolve? We may think that the Great Crash of 1929, junk bonds of the '80s, and over-valued high-tech stocks of the '90s are peculiarly 20th century aberrations, but Mackay's classic--first published in 1841--shows that the madness and confusion of crowds knows no limits, and has no temporal bounds. These are extraordinarily illuminating,and, unfortunately, entertaining tales of chicanery, greed and naivete. Essential reading for any student of human nature or the transmission of ideas."

"In fact, cases such as Tulipomania in 1624--when Tulip bulbs traded at a higher price than gold--suggest the existence of what I would dub "Mackay's Law of Mass Action:" when it comes to the effect of social behavior on the intelligence of individuals, 1+1 is often less than 2, and sometimes considerably less than 0."

Art of Contrary Thinking by Humphrey B. Neill:

"When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong."

"The ten words quoted above are, according to Humphrey B. Neill, a potent factor behind the economic booms and busts that blight our civilization. "The Mississippi Bubble," Hollands incredible "Tulipmania," and the New York stock market crash in 1929 are historic examples of disasters magnified and hastened by the pressure of mass opinion."

"In exactly the opposite direction, in the years immediately following the close of World War II, ominous popular forecasts of business recession turned out to be wrong. What actually happened was-a business boom, not a business bust!"

"The reason is no mystery to anyone versed in the contrary way of thought-the practical application of the Neill Theory of Contrary Opinion. Today, this Theory-which began as one man's quest for a way to solve the puzzles of economic trends-has expanded enormously in both scope and significance."