Iran is a tough one. The difference is that the mullahs are working on a very different authoritarian model than Saddam. Saddam learned from Stalin. There was no way he was going anywhere with exactly what happened. Iran is more like the soviet union in 1988. It still has organs of repression but like most of what the regime does it isn't very efficient.

Since they are Shiia, the craziest people who could take power there are already *in* power, so whatever comes next is going to be a lot easier to deal with. Most of the population of Iran today doesn't even remember the Shah.

My pick is for the theocracy to crumble in two years. What we have to watch is what they feed to Hezbollah in the meantime. That's why stabilizing Iraq and dealing with Syria in Lebanon is important. We need Hezbollah out of the Bekaa.


>How about Iran now? They're in the same boat, aren't they??
>>>The Weapons the US was concerned with are Nukes.
>>>
>>>The US went to war against Iraq on the incorrect presumption
>>>that Iraq had a nuclear program.
>>
>>Once again, you are so wrong it is almost not worth refuting. Saddam did once have a nuclear program - he even had a reactor - sold to him by Chirac.
>>
>>There is absolutely no doubt that once the sanctions were lifted he would buy a nuke.
>>
>>But the concern was with stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons that were never accounted for - and are not to this day.