You're overcomplicating the matter. It is plainly about supply and demand. Nothing more and nothing less. Whether the demand decreases because of other factors does not matter as long as the supply/demand ratio increases, rates will go up.

This reminds me of some of our conversations about capabilities in .NET. <s>

Demand isn't just about wants/need - it's also about ability and willingness to pay. Many factors come in to play, including the substitution factor.

Kevin