Kevin,

>You're overcomplicating the matter. It is plainly about supply and demand. Nothing more and nothing less. Whether the demand decreases because of other factors does not matter as long as the supply/demand ratio increases, rates will go up.
>
>This reminds me of some of our conversations about capabilities in .NET. <s>

>Demand isn't just about wants/need - it's also about ability and willingness to pay. Many factors come in to play, including the substitution factor.

I don't believe you cannot see this. It does not matter what defines the supply or demand. As long as the supply/demand ratio increases, rates will go up. Again plain and simple. You can distract from the issue by diversing to anything you like but this is a fact. How the supply/demand ration will develop and which factors do play in the is a different matter, you nor I nor anybody else knows.

I do know that with outsourcing to cheaper countries the supply increases a lot, Since the economy still has not recovered from the internet bubble, rates will go down or at least will stay low. This esspecially will be noticable in very common programming languages/tools like VB, .NET, Delphi and java. Things won't be the same again. So if you're a developper in the western countries and you'll have to survive in the IT, then you must make sure that you have some exceptional skills where there is a demand for and not so susceptical to outsourcing. Therefore you evangalism to joe average programmers to learn .NET to save their carreer simply does not cut it. Joe average programmers in general do not have a future in the western world. They might even have a better chance in nich languages than in common languages.

Walter,