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Greed At Its Best
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04/09/2007 12:41:10
 
 
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04/09/2007 11:40:21
Information générale
Forum:
Politics
Catégorie:
Autre
Divers
Thread ID:
01251725
Message ID:
01252243
Vues:
20
>>>Take it to its simplest: if you toss a coin, it's 1:2 you'll get a heads.
>>>
>>>Next toss it's not 1:4 you'll get heads, then for a third 1:16 (1:8 or whatever) - it's still 1:2. By the end of 64 tosses, by that logic, like the old grains of sand on a chessboard conundrum, the chances of getting heads would be practically infinity:1.
>>
>>
>>Yes, but if the question is whether tossing twice, you'll get two heads, then the odds are 1 in 4.
>
>No. The odds of tossing twice and getting 2 heads is 50/50 because they are two independent events regardless of how you would like them not to be. The odds of tossing 2 coins at once and having them both come up heads is calculated differently and is 1 in 4.
>

They are not independent events. You can't get two heads in two tosses unless you get one on the first toss. It's 50-50 on that first toss. If it winds up tails, your second toss is guaranteed to wind up not two heads in a row. If it winds up tails, your second toss has another 50-50 chance of being heads.

What you are describing is the chance of the second toss being a head regardless of the result on the first toss.


All I can add is to try it. Toss a coin and then toss another coin. Do that 100 times and count the number of times both wind up heads. It should be approximately 25, not 50.
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