> but there is also a chance that it forestalled another thread unreeling in which Baghdad would now be glowing in the dark or would look like the surface of the moon.

I'm a bit surprized on the location:
I can easily imagine glowing spots somewhere in the wild if Saddam had started up WMD development hidden "out there" and no reaction from other countries happened. A Poe-inspired "purloined WMD factory" right in Baghdad I see as highly improbable, so for Baghdad to influence global heat statistics you probably speculate not on a surgical strike but massive (retaliation?) strike. As I don't see Israel trying to invade Iraq directly via Jordania, Syria or airlifting that scenario would as I see it only happen if Israel missed the right opportunity and retaliated to the gassing of Tel Aviv or Haifa.

While I realize that Israel is automatically backed into a corner by their location they are too dependant on others to start with a massive first strike IMHO.

regards

thomas