No, I was thinking more in terms of Saddam's bombast which had convinced the world and his own general's that he had some very nasty stuff. Israel takes out suspected weapons facilities somewhere in Iraq, Iraq shoots *anything* at Israel (never know what is on the warhead) and Israel decides to put an end to the problem once and for all. Probably not Baghdad, but certainly a wider Middle East war that would have been far more destructive than what actually happened in 2003 and since.

>> but there is also a chance that it forestalled another thread unreeling in which Baghdad would now be glowing in the dark or would look like the surface of the moon.
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>I'm a bit surprized on the location:
>I can easily imagine glowing spots somewhere in the wild if Saddam had started up WMD development hidden "out there" and no reaction from other countries happened. A Poe-inspired "purloined WMD factory" right in Baghdad I see as highly improbable, so for Baghdad to influence global heat statistics you probably speculate not on a surgical strike but massive (retaliation?) strike. As I don't see Israel trying to invade Iraq directly via Jordania, Syria or airlifting that scenario would as I see it only happen if Israel missed the right opportunity and retaliated to the gassing of Tel Aviv or Haifa.
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>While I realize that Israel is automatically backed into a corner by their location they are too dependant on others to start with a massive first strike IMHO.
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>regards
>
>thomas