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03/07/2008 08:22:15
 
 
À
02/07/2008 18:04:01
Dragan Nedeljkovich (En ligne)
Now officially retired
Zrenjanin, Serbia
Information générale
Forum:
Finances
Catégorie:
Marchés boursiers
Titre:
Re: Stocks
Divers
Thread ID:
01327815
Message ID:
01328553
Vues:
15
>>>>Surely you don't really think what you saw in Eastern Europe is applicable. The U.S. stock market is not going to fall to zero. It goes up, it goes down. It does not disappear.
>>>
>>>It doesn't, it just gets expressed in weaker currency. Three years ago, when Dow Jones was at 13000, someone calculated that it should be at 16000 just to break even with 1999 - adjusted for inflation. But somehow this adjustment gets forgotten.
>>
>>Agreed especially if seen from foreign currency based eyes<g>. But dividends are computed into the Dow (they are in the DAX) so there is a correcting factor.
>
>It's not exactly right. If a stock gains, say, 14% over a year, but the inflation is 9%, the net result is just 4.6% increase (I think I don't need to explain why is it not 5%).

It is not quite true. Actually, we have two scenarios here:
1) Non-adjusted to inflation: a person investing in a stock and getting 14% comparing with a person not investing in a stock and getting 0%.
2) Adjusted to inflation: a person investing in a stock and getting 5% (or 4.6 if you like it) comparing with a person not investing in a stock and getting -9% (or -9.4% ??).

Looking at these 2 scenarios I don't see much difference.
Edward Pikman
Independent Consultant
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