>>>95% surviving group games, >66% reaching half finals, somewhat decreased by the assumption other south american teams will have more support than usual. Chances of winning close to nil unless they have a close call/bad streak in group games and develop an angry mind set afterwards while being cast then as underdogs.
>
>You are too modest. Germany will end up in the top 4, like they always do (well, at least a lot more than any other team). There is a reason I hate them :)

Don't think I am too modest. Your embolded part, coupled with the number of actual wins points me to significantly lower chances of winning - somehow the killer instinct is usually missing, but can be evoked. And South American teams, which have a larger span from briliant to lousy due to external factors are on home ground, lowering my estimate for reaching top 4 (which is half finals) by about 10-15%.