>Don't think I am too modest. Your embolded part, coupled with the number of actual wins points me to significantly lower chances of winning - somehow the killer instinct is usually missing, but can be evoked. And South American teams, which have a larger span from briliant to lousy due to external factors are on home ground, lowering my estimate for reaching top 4 (which is half finals) by about 10-15%.

Well, I can only hope you are right. For me there would be no better thing in soccer than Argentina winning in Brazil, but I put that chances at around 1%, and only if we do not meet Germany, it seems as they got our number! :)