>>Don't think I am too modest. Your embolded part, coupled with the number of actual wins points me to significantly lower chances of winning - somehow the killer instinct is usually missing, but can be evoked. And South American teams, which have a larger span from briliant to lousy due to external factors are on home ground, lowering my estimate for reaching top 4 (which is half finals) by about 10-15%.
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>Well, I can only hope you are right. For me there would be no better thing in soccer than Argentina winning in Brazil, but I put that chances at around 1%, and only if we do not meet Germany, it seems as they got our number! :)

I don't hate Argentina but I don't like all the diving they do. Not that it is limited to Argentina, of course. One of the laws of the game specifies a penalty for diving but you almost never see it called.

There was a funny moment in the NBA finals. Manu Ginobili of the Spurs took a blatant flop. "He IS from Argentina," one of the announcers said.