But you're totally overlooking the fairly quick turnaround on mobile device purchases. 2 years max, 1 year average. Fortunes can turn very quickly.

Latest figures say that 27% of European iOS and Android users change their OS when they renew their phone. IOW the vast majority is satisfied.

In the end, that's a very important marker because the people you build apps for - especially business apps - are not likely to be the low end users.

Fair enough, but Android is going into everything including onto the desktop. HP has a machine coming out shortly that is a full PC with a 23" screen that detaches to be a tablet. Running Android. <$500. That's going to appeal +++ to businesses. Meanwhile in Asia the phablet (5-7 inch phone) has overtaken notebook and Tablet combined, almost entirely Android.

Depends on market too - I spent a bunch of time in Europe this summer and everywhere I went there, iOS devices were everywhere. Much less Android than I see here in the states. Another thing to consider is that Apple will have to be more competitive going forward, so that will change the dynamics of Android as well - if the price differential drops more people from the lower end likely will consider getting iDevices.

Most recent figures say iOS's market share growth in the big five Euros was 3.1%, Android's was 2.9%. So iOS seems to be doing slightly better until you consider that Android is>70% market share, Apple <20% share in Europe. WP actually did best in most recent figures, reaching 8.2%.

Apple could increase sales by releasing a phablet, but I'm not sure they'll want to reduce prices or compete directly. IMHO iOS is to Android is as Mercedez Benz is to GM. GM sells more vehicles, but Merc makes profits because buyers care about the premium product and expect to pay $$. For Merc to drop prices or compete with GM would reduce the exclusivity of their brand and the reliable loyalty of their user base. I can't see it. So you could argue that there's no longer any real competition in the smartphone market. Which is a shame: with personal experience of cozy duopolies, I was relying on MS to keep competition alive.

In my experience for higher end and sophisicated users the majority continue to use iOS. There are also high end Android phones as well as Windows Phone in that percentile but the numbers there look quite a bit different than the general picture.

You and Kevin both say things like this. FWIW my household is packed with iOS devices and my daughters swear by iOS and refuse the amazing Android devices I source out of China. I'm happy to be told the female others in the household are more sophisticated than me, but the chances of my swapping my 5" and 5.7" 1080p Android phones for iDevices, are zero. Apart from anything else, on iPhone my emails are full of fat finger typos and take forever to get right on such a tiny screen. Business apps on that tiny screen seem equally unlikely. IMHO my device is about as small as you can go if you're seriously hoping to deploy business apps. Apple doesn't have a phablet so they'd better hurry up.

IMHO Android is a train wreck. I've had several Android devices and not low end devices either, but they all were terrible. When it comes to platform, Android by far is the sloppiest and least coherent of the big mobile platforms.

Why not purchase a Google edition Galaxy 4 or HTC One with vanilla Android rather than a vendor concoction. Both available from Google Play with Google and vendors all expressing commitment to OS updates via Google Play. Phones on Google Play sell phenomenally well (LG reached 3rd position on the back of its Lexus 4 sold via Google Play) so it will be interesting to see whether the market buys gazillions of Ones and Galaxies with easily updated plain Android rather than whatever Verizon puts on their subsidized version.

So - I think there's a lot more to this than just the numbers and it's my belief that things in this space can and will change drastically and potentially quickly. This platform is not anywhere near a maturity stage where you can declare a winner that will stick long term.

I wish what you say to be true- I've lived through a cozy duopoly in mobile telephony and it's no good for consumers. Sadly, IMHO the numbers are so heavily stacked now that even if Google pulled Android overnight it would still lead the market in a year's time. Since that won't be happening, Android has all the momentum: check out the Acer and other phablets being announced by all the big vendors.