>Message#1604513
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>Fair enough.;-)
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>"Upon this, one has to remark that men ought either to be well treated or crushed, because they can avenge themselves of lighter injuries, of more serious ones they cannot; therefore the injury that is to be done to a man ought to be of such a kind that one does not stand in fear of revenge. -- Machiavelli
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>Machievelli had a point. I'm thinking of Bloody Sunday in which 14 unarmed Irish Catholic men and teenagers were killed by troops in 1972. No women or kids, so I agree it's not a direct match to current events. But Bloody Sunday didn't dissuade the IRA- quite the opposite, it caused a big boost in prestige and recruitment for the Provisional (violent) branch as well as easier international fundraising to support the fight against the oppressor. Maybe that put back by a few years the peace that eventually broke out despite the psychopath minority on both sides. Who knows.
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>As always, time goes by and people forget. To many, Bloody Sunday now would be just the name of a song by an oldster band. Doesn't help the women who still visit graves on 30 January every year to remember and reflect on what might have been.
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>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgyVvoODWGA

U2 - a few good songs, "Bloody Sunday" is one of those, but otherwise by far the most overrated band in the world, and a top contender for all-time.

Seems to me the Troubles died away when extremism dropped below the critical level, and sentiment tipped. It no doubt helped that economic conditions generally improved across the whole island during the same time frame.

There are a few factors that are different with Gaza:

1. According to one analysis I saw, Hamas levies taxes on all goods smuggled through its tunnels. The new regime in Egypt is not friendly to Hamas and smuggling has dried up. Hamas is running out of money and the Gazan black market can no longer meet the needs of the populace. That desperation is the immediate cause of the current conflict.

2. How much of that desperation is the direct fault of Hamas? It seems even jaded Israelis are surprised at the resources Hamas poured into its "underground Gaza" infrastructure. Any relaxation of embargoes will benefit Hamas first, and if they remain the same or are tightened Hamas will get first cut at anything that does get through. Hamas is an economic parasite, and not a sustainable one either - it's endangering its host. As a doctor, what would you prescribe?

3. I consider the odds of reduction of extremism in Gaza to be very low. Within Gaza, Hamas has proven apt at using modern methods to maximize their reach and influence. I have heard nothing about any organized opposition to Hamas, or when/if Gazans next go to the polls.

Outside of Gaza, there are other actors worldwide with strong interest in using Gaza as a proxy. Those will prop up Hamas just enough to keep Gaza simmering (significant humanitarian relief? Perish the thought), or replace it entirely if its extremism quotient is deemed to be too low. Provocateurs flourish under these conditions - murder some Israeli teens, abduct a soldier, ...

So, the solution is:

1. Reduce extremism quotient below the tipping point
2. Create conditions for sustainable prosperity
3. Collect Nobel Peace Prize!

FgyVvoODWGA