>>Less than a year ago, I placed Trump's odds of re-election at maybe 30% and declining. Well, right now I'd say his odds are better than 50-50. I'm seeing parallels between Trump a year before the election, and Nixon a year before the '72 election, as well as Reagan a year before the '84 election. And we all remember how badly the Democratic candidates were humiliated in those elections.
>
>Quiz:
>Name all the presidents since WWII who ran for re-election and failed to win.
>Ford doesn't count, because he was never elected in the first place.
>It's a pretty short list, isn't it?
>So Trump's odds are a lot better than 50/50.

Without checking, I know that Carter had a four year term and lost in 1980, and that George Bush had a four year term and lost in 1992.
But the Trump presidency is so different from everything we have ever seen. He won through the most improbable of circumstances.

Trump's inability to follow through on several of the promises that got him elected are not unlike the "Ready my lips, no new taxes" from Bush. (Obviously, Bush lost for other reason as well in 1992). Some of his followers could be swayed if the Dems were smart enough to run a more moderate candidate. But it's become obvious the DNC is delusional. When Nancy Pelosi is the comparative "voice of reason" in the Democratic party, and when an increasing # of candidates on the D side are tuning her out, that is all helping Trump.

Trump is entirely beatable in 2020 - by a good candidate. Just like George Jr was entirely beatable in 2004, and yet the Dems ran with an entirely unelectable person in John Kerry. Nixon was beatable in 1972, and yet the Dems ran with someone who had zero, and I mean, zero chance of winning.