The optimistic talking points leave out key points.

1) Without a) starting early on keeping people apart and b) getting or forcing cooperation with "stay at home" rules, the projections were and are correct. The United States has enough current information to support those statements. Look up up the acceleration of cases/fatalities from first tested incidence in Tennessee, which started late and used lax guidance contrasted with neighboring Kentucky, which declared a state of emergency on the day of the first reported positive test and has worked every day to lessen person-to-person contact. The current official US numbers of deaths if nothing were to be done are considered 50% lower than the best epidemiology estimates.

2) The evidence on building immunity is equivocal at this point. There is at least one instance of a person seeming to have gotten it again,

3) The number of non-elderly dying in the US population is higher than the China figures. And, of course, there is no independent verification of the China numbers.

As you point out, without systematic population-level serological (anti-bodies) testing, we won't know how many have had it, and therefore, if in fact a) one does build immunity, b) if that immunity builds resistance to new variants -- which already exist in vivo. If both these conditions hold, then we will be in a position to do what S. Korea did: testing of all cases, quarantine of those affected, and contact tracing. That in turn depends on the willingness of our political leaders to face reality (which delayed action in both the U.S. and the UK, not to mention other countries where the bodies are now piling up or about to pile up) and the political will to create the infrastructure needed to implement the contact tracing method. At least 8 states in the US delayed action beyond any reasonable point. seeming to be waiting for the White House to change its tune before actions that mattered counted. At least one, Florida, specifically exempted church gatherings from the no-gathering edict. The political will to follow the science often is just not present.

By the point where attendees will have to book flights, definitive answers to at least some of the outstanding questions are unlikely to be known.

The future beyond that looks better. The U. of Pittsburgh SARS research center has created a vaccine that works on mice, will be applied by a skin patch, and does not require refrigeration. They built on years of research on the SARS family of viruses. Immunity will be conferred in 2 weeks. It could conceivably be ready for use in as little as a year.

>>>Just curious (and I've been asking other conference organizers the same thing), have you given any thought to a virtual conference?
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>Tom Whiteley used to describe user group meetings for some antique product, consisting of attendees sitting and knitting and chatting. VFP isn't to that point yet, but there's a certain satisfaction in seeing the Strahls, Hennigs etc in person! Would be shame to revert to online, though a bonus for those with furthest to come.
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>>>Just personal opinion, I think the assumption the crisis will be over by November is extremely optimistic. Hopefully the trends are downward before then, but I have a feeling many will still be very cautious about large events for a long time.
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>Not sure whether you saw that the Imperial College predictions (that spurred responses in the West) have been downgraded? Having predicted millions of deaths in the US and hundreds of thousands in the UK, now they say fewer than 20,000 deaths in the UK many of whom are in their last year of life from other co-morbidities or otherwise would be candidates to perish from flu like thousands every year (tens of thousands in the US) despite availability of a vaccine. Corporate media seems less interested in reporting this revision, than the original more alarming numbers.
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>The biggest contributor to uncertainty is the denominator since we don't know how many contracted and shrugged off the virus while WHO was still minimizing it. With tests like the new Abbott 45-second test coming online, feasibly most people in the US could have been tested by November which allows better mortality estimation than other nations. Nirvana would be the coming test for IgM/IgG antibodies so you know who currently has the virus, vs those who have recovered so are no longer a risk to themselves or others and can safely go back to work, or to conferences. As for the Tony Faucis of the world: lets not forget that he once claimed that up to 20% of US adults would contract AIDS. These people have to present worst possible worst possible, with even Fauci agreeing he's never actually seen worst case and doesn't expect to.