Hi Hank, Inline...

>The optimistic talking points leave out key points.
>
>1) Without a) starting early on keeping people apart and b) getting or forcing cooperation with "stay at home" rules, the projections were and are correct. The United States has enough current information to support those statements. Look up up the acceleration of cases/fatalities from first tested incidence in Tennessee, which started late and used lax guidance contrasted with neighboring Kentucky, which declared a state of emergency on the day of the first reported positive test and has worked every day to lessen person-to-person contact. The current official US numbers of deaths if nothing were to be done are considered 50% lower than the best epidemiology estimates.

At the moment I find it very hard even to guess at underlying parameters, as every country has different standards and often different options available as well as different age structures and other differences...
Not even death count can be considered reliable: I have come across comparisons of expected death count in Italy and current death count, and current death count was markedly above (expected count + Covid-19 diagnosed). Yes, there will be some cases of deaths not infected, but due to overworked health system in Italy, but I suspect a large # of infections linked or even causing as not diagnosed.

>
>2) The evidence on building immunity is equivocal at this point. There is at least one instance of a person seeming to have gotten it again,

Talking about immunity as a binary scale is totally misleading. Not assuming human immune system will be strenghened against same and similar virus is so against current medical and scientific knowledge that arguing should be halted until scientific data is available pointing to such a surprize. Even having 50% less of population not needing hospital beds on second virus encounter / infection would be a big benefit. The immune system response also will be unequally distributed along age axxis.
I suspect a sheaf of "sloped normally" distributed poisson distributions of ability to combat new encounters, diminishing with time since recuperation. Postulating zero immune strengthening on isolated single cases IMO is alarmist, overly cautious, but "safety-first" warranted assumption might be 2 - 4 months 0f 70% immunity when looking at larger numbers. Similar to deaths linked to co- or multimorbidity such isolated cases could be caused by similar circumstances.

>3) The number of non-elderly dying in the US population is higher than the China figures. And, of course, there is no independent verification of the China numbers.

Yupp, the near zero new infections make me disbelieve some previous numbers. Singapore numbers I trust a lot since backed up by numbered case descriptions / histories / infection chain descriptions - and they show several new (well controlled) cases by returning citizens. Hard to believe nothing similar occurs across mainland China.

>As you point out, without systematic population-level serological (anti-bodies) testing, we won't know how many have had it, and therefore, if in fact a) one does build immunity, b) if that immunity builds resistance to new variants -- which already exist in vivo. If both these conditions hold, then we will be in a position to do what S. Korea did: testing of all cases, quarantine of those affected, and contact tracing. That in turn depends on the willingness of our political leaders to face reality (which delayed action in both the U.S. and the UK, not to mention other countries where the bodies are now piling up or about to pile up) and the political will to create the infrastructure needed to implement the contact tracing method. At least 8 states in the US delayed action beyond any reasonable point. seeming to be waiting for the White House to change its tune before actions that mattered counted. At least one, Florida, specifically exempted church gatherings from the no-gathering edict. The political will to follow the science often is just not present.

Yes, Trump said some very stupid things - even for him. But so did german politicians - I had traced the numbers since mid-January as I have this perverse interest in numbers and statistics, with much more time allotted after offspring told of plans for 2.5 month trip in asia at a breakfast end of January. So when Webasto infection rate showed fast cluster transmission and asymptological infection was proved in airplane rescue landing in my town, epidemic was certain to happen at this keyboard from the numbers given not only from China but from other countries. Germany went into Carnival with open throats and spurred on by official statements. Seems without death count well into 3 figures no population will even consider a danger - even if data from elsewhere is clear.

Trump closed borders early: something european politicians mocked and ridiculed at once, then followed less than a week later.
Screening for higher temperature on flight arrivals unheard of here...
Our breed has special areas not daring to look into.

regards
thomas