Thomas,

>> the spike of Newly Infected vs. Newly Recovered in Australia

Half Australia's mortality came from one cruise ship that amazingly was just allowed to dock again with 200 cases aboard.

New Zealand has a better moat than Australia. As of yesterday, NZ had 1106 confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 with 1 death (so <0.01% mortality) , 13 hospitalized and 176 recovered. Also only 2% confirmed community transmission: of known causes the vast majority = recent arrivals and contacts. NZ is in week 2 of a comprehensive lock down, aiming for eradication rather than mitigation.

Explanations? At this stage more like educated guesses in the absence of antibody tests but my belief is that NZ already has high immunity after (fortunately) summer infections raged through the private school community in January when kids returned from exotic vacations or trips home for Chinese New Year and infected whole schools, families etc etc who thought it was flu or a bit of a cold and just pressed on. Certainly I will do the antibody test when availability increases and am confident I am immune after I got the disease in January and gave it to others I can name who got sicker than me...