>I see that CDC's latest conservative estimate of COVID mortality is .26% of infections, order/s of magnitude less than modeled lethality.
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>I say "conservative" because it's based on 25% asymptomatic cases, unlike the up to 86% asymptomatic calculation from elsewhere. Increase the denominator by 350% and mortality drops to less than annual flu.

Considering that there are asymptomatic carriers, and that testing was limited to symptomatic cases, then clearly the IFR is lower than CFR. By how much, it remains to be determined.

>Until better asymptomatic spread can be measured by community testing, .26% remains more than twice as high as annual flu lethality, but less than pandemic flu lethality. Meanwhile the main message is that models can by shockingly inaccurate so politicians need to be discouraged from ever again treating models as settled science.

What would have been the alternative? Is preparedness for the worst case scenario worthless?
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