>>There are 2 not mentioned elephants in the room:
>># of vaccinations (including best practice boosters [2..4]) vs. probability of 0..2 infections per year as contra-vaccine influence
>>Long Covid probability/risk not really available on current data banks as probable pro-vaccine influence

And a third: some US communities are notoriously resistant to government imposition. At least one right-wing author (Nolte) says that the nasty intolerant attacks and coercive strategies are willfully provocative, so people in flyover Republican strongholds don't get vaccinated, and die.

That's no more absurd than asserting that people questioning vax for 2-11y olds want to see them die, but there it is. It started from polarized political discourse in the Trump era - "if you say anything positive about that awful person then you're evil too and I want nothing to do with you" which now invades science as well.

>>Hmmm, I know that Novavax works via protein which is created by genetic engineering and hailed as "dead vaccine" -

It's similar technology to hepatitis and flu vaccines with billions of doses and years of documented safety record.

Interestingly. in NZ some Maori communities are undervaccinated compared to the rest of the population. Some insist this is a sign of underprivilege or health systems failing to prioritize risk, but then one of the elders came out and said they aren't satisfied with the mRNA options and will wait for Novavax.

This is one of the reasons why I believe practicing medics should oversee all of this: theorists (whether trained or armchair variety) can forget that human beings are not sacks of wheat of uniform specification to be processed to a defined quality; humans have infinite variability, opinions, and a voice. So if large groups resist, that's a messaging problem not a moral or intellectual flaw in the refuseniks.

>>I have no idea which protein structures Novavax trains the immune system on.
>>I see no reason to think that escape selection will not work a few months after Novavax is introduced if used often.

Ever the contrarian, my view would be that this bug is reassuringly predictable as it mutates its way to irrelevance. Now we need only wait; any jab that can be shown to reduce risk in some age or gender-stratified groups while we wait, is justifiable. The danger is aggregation of data to suit a narrative and push jabs onto wider groups, e.g. merging sex data that conceals higher risk in young men, or limiting age stratification to over 50 or under 40 when we know there's exponential differences inside those coarse groupings. It's worrying if that happens once; if it keeps happening, no wonder some groups get suspicious and then conspiracy theorists deliver their rationalizations.

>>Do you have further info ? I distinctly remember reading about Omicron evading true "inactivated virus" vaccines even more than mRNA, IIRC CoronaVac from China used in South America sometimes, Valneva as well. Have not followed up on Russian vaccines as it smelled of politics intertwined - data should be available by now.

Novavax is saying over 90% effective against omicron, also that they're preparing an omicron version, also that boosters will be needed. As with the others, more data will emerge as the public trial proceeds. ;-)

>>Prediction: as vaccinated body cell response to create antigen is not needed, amount of antigen is easier to predict/control.

There are also postulated 3rd and 4th mechanisms as mysterious today as when I was at med school. Perhaps these help explain why attenuated vaccines can confer life-long immunity while mRNA rapidly wanes, even against ancestor strains that once boasted 95%.

>>I see no reason to force vaccination, as vaccination does not inhibit spread to a large degree.

Look to Gibraltar with >100% vaccination but daily counts currently 86% of highest pre-vax tally, and rising. Of course you'd want to check the age and sex stratification before commenting further, as well as season which every grandma knew has a huge effect on respiratory illness.

>>if overloaded health system needs to be avoided, couple "non-vaccination" with possible triage in advance.
>>No need to make decision easy to avoid:
>>- add analogous hoopla needed for getting an abortion.
>>- add escrow for hospital cost
>>but afterwards stay out of the decision, test everybody until you declare it endemic.

That might be acceptable had it been done for obesity or smoking, both of which have more significant morbidity and long term cost than this pandemic.