>>Have you guys seen the movie Pi? It's kind of about that. This dude goes nuts analyzing the math behind the stock market. Pretty cool if you like wierd movies.
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>Great movie. Loved the B&W photography. A little contrast anyone.
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>As far as the market isn't it the same as any type of odds. I mean a price can have 3 actions (increase, decrease, no change), so your odds of being correct are 1 in 3 EVERY time you make prediction, right. Your odds never change regardless of past history or trends. Just like rolling a die, your odds are 1 in 6 on every roll.

There is some truth to this...the market pretty much prices a stock with consideration of all the variables. In other words, if a stock is $0.25, there are reasons for that; if a stock is $75.00, there are reasons for that too. The thing that a buyer has to do is figure out when the market is wrong (low->buy). And then wait until the market figures out its mistake (or the dividends start to pour-in). Or, of couse you can go the other way and sell short on stocks that you think are over-valued. I think there is a lot of money to be made on a lot of internet stocks right now (by short selling). Of course, it all depends on the risk you want to take. The risk when selling short is higher because you don't know how much you are gambling (when you buy, you know exactly the amount that you are gambling).

Take care,
Joe