Just an rule of thumb I use, add 20% to the worst case scenario and if it doesn't work at that level don't do it. This takes the emotional padding out of the equation, which we all unknowingly add, and brings everything back to reality.

Okay - lets say the homework is done. The market is defined. The competition is defined.

The marketing plan (cost to market plan:) goes five years out. The bets are made and "projected" sales values start going into the spread sheet's monthly units sold column.

The numbers have to be as conservative [realistic] as possible.

Is there a "scientific" method to make those bets?

My hunch [belief too] is the numbers are more of a promise than a statistical expectation. If they aren't delivered, the godfather pays a visit!

The cost of name recognition - ads - brochures - conference booths - datz a lot-o-money!

In some cases, the share/evalware might be the best. Once the product gets rolling,and enjoys a few paying seats - the project could move to brick and mortar (get funded), or - just keep pushing with "eval/share" ware marketing. Some people are doing quite well in that venue. And - they own it all.

I wonder if investors will buy into a "share ware" business model?