Hi,

>Is there a "scientific" method to make those bets?

Yes, it is done by SWOT Strenghts Weaknesses Opportunity & Threat analysis. It takes a fair bit of time to do, but if done correctly you will know exactly where you are going to be at any given time.
Also if done correctly, you will have the answers/correct direction to any given change in circumstance. Within reason.

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>My hunch [belief too] is the numbers are more of a promise than a statistical expectation. If they aren't delivered, the godfather pays a visit!

No. I have done cashflows on $200M projects with large unknowns that didn't vary more than +/- 4% from budget thru out the project.

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>The cost of name recognition - ads - brochures - conference booths - datz a lot-o-money!

Your initial marketing has to be extremely cost effective, untill the cashflow starts.

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>In some cases, the share/evalware might be the best. Once the product gets rolling,and enjoys a few paying seats - the project could move to brick and mortar (get funded), or - just keep pushing with "eval/share" ware marketing. Some people are doing quite well in that venue. And - they own it all.

Have looked at this, but can't see how you would handle the support costs if you grew a killer app. Unable to get an "S" curve to fit the model.
I also have a problem with what do you do with the shareware clients when you go commercial, after all that is the objective isn't it ?
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>I wonder if investors will buy into a "share ware" business model?

Probably not. It is all about ROI. That's why they invest.