Thomas,
>> the spike of Newly Infected vs. Newly Recovered in Australia
Half Australia's mortality came from one cruise ship that amazingly was just allowed to dock again with 200 cases aboard.
New Zealand has a better moat than Australia. As of yesterday, NZ had 1106 confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 with 1 death (so <0.01% mortality) , 13 hospitalized and 176 recovered. Also only 2% confirmed community transmission: of known causes the vast majority = recent arrivals and contacts. NZ is in week 2 of a comprehensive lock down, aiming for eradication rather than mitigation.
Explanations? At this stage more like educated guesses in the absence of antibody tests but my belief is that NZ already has high immunity after (fortunately) summer infections raged through the private school community in January when kids returned from exotic vacations or trips home for Chinese New Year and infected whole schools, families etc etc who thought it was flu or a bit of a cold and just pressed on. Certainly I will do the antibody test when availability increases and am confident I am immune after I got the disease in January and gave it to others I can name who got sicker than me...
"... They ne'er cared for us
yet: suffer us to famish, and their store-houses
crammed with grain; make edicts for usury, to
support usurers; repeal daily any wholesome act
established against the rich, and provide more
piercing statutes daily, to chain up and restrain
the poor. If the wars eat us not up, they will; and
there's all the love they bear us."
-- Shakespeare: Coriolanus, Act 1, scene 1